BitBet receivership first progress report

State of the receivership process

After working a few days on the BitBet receivership process I am pleased to present all interested parties with my first progress report. The work I have undertaken during these few days focused mainly on the identification and accounting of the theoretically available assets, as well as the listing of existing claims against BitBet.

As of today, I have received:
– from Matic Kočevar: the deedbot’d DB, codebase, and contents of the hot wallet amounting to 4.83337474 BTC [1, 2]
– from Mircea Popescu: the bitbet.us domain and the sum of 750.5 BTC.

Auctioneering of the source code, database and domain name

The source code, database, and domain will be auctioned as a single package during the next week, bids should be published directly in the comments, the highest bid at the end of Wednesday the 6th of April 2016 will be retained as buyer for the whole package.

After the completion of the auction I will publish a final list of assets, the list of certified claims (after resolving whatever bets can actually be resolved at that point in order to maximize the fee revenue). After that I shall give a few days for interested parties to comment and finally proceed to the actual transfers (Bitcoin and other assets).

State of the assets and liabilities

As of the today, the minimum  value of the assets in my possession is ~755 BTC, while the maximum total amount for the liabilities, should all claims be certified, is ~981 BTC.

Assets:
  - Cash: 954.78385211 BTC (of which 755.33337474 BTC is currently under my control): 
    (1) Outstanding bets: 942.81955914 BTC,
    (2) Unpaid resolved bets: 8.75451297 BTC,
    (3) Zeroconf bets on unhandled proposals: 1.99978000 BTC,
    (4) Gracious donations: 1.21000000 BTC.

  - Non-cash assets for which the value is to be determined during the auction:
    - the 'bitbet.us' domain name,
    - the BitBet database,
    - the BitBet source code.

Liabilities: 981.54108013 BTC, detailed as:
 - Mircea Popescu's bill: 17.94766149 BTC
 - Receiver's fee: 13.37 BTC
 - Bettor winnings: 331.69291390 BTC (335.04334737 BTC before 1% fee)
 - Bettor refunds for unresolved bets: 616.53072474 BTC
 - Bettor refunds for zeroconf bets on un-handled proposals: 1.99978000 BTC

Data used for this report

See the data files in plain text format, or in CSV format.

The lists of Bitcoin addresses to be used by BitBet, as transmitted by Matic Kočevar and clearsigned by Mircea Popescu [1, 2].

April 6th update: additional data as per my response to hanbot’s comment. It includes the outstanding bets as well as the resolved but unpaid ones. It also has the resolution timestamp included.

71 thoughts on “BitBet receivership first progress report

  1. Arnoldas

    David, could you please transfer some part of your 750 BTC to the person you really trust.
    If something happens to you, we all are screwed…

    Reply
  2. Gojko

    Many bettors have meanwhile LOST their bets, eg in AI Alphago vs. Sedol.

    Theis bet is still unresolved.
    My question is : will the losers of still unresolved bets be refunded?
    For those who have bet on Sedol would be a real present.

    I guess it would be more appropriate to use the losers’ funds to fill gaps in layabilities, redistributing to winners their initial bets plus what is left.

    Just my 2 cents thrown here.

    Reply
    1. brendafdez

      Ask Santa for presents. See:
      http://log.bitcoin-assets.com//?date=28-03-2016#1441337

      The losing bets go to the winners of same bet; only the fee belongs to the company. The “confiscate at will, use loot to cover costs, and redistribute whatever’s left, so the losers lose everything and the winners lose their winnings”, however used you may be to that, has no place in Bitcoin. Spewing that braindamage publicly only erodes your layability.

      Reply
    2. Arnoldas

      “use the losers’ funds to fill gaps in layabilities”. I completely agree. Actually, I don’t mind if David do it this way: bettor for AlphaGo receive 110% of their bets. Like compensation for the waiting and for broken expectations. We would still have ~ 60 BTC left and usable for redistribution

      PS. My bets are related to BTC going up only.

      Reply
      1. brendafdez

        Nothing that agreement and redistribution couldn’t fix. If you strongly agree to redistribute enough, everyone can get 110% on their money, and there’s still more money left, for another round of redistribution.

        How could we run out of money if there’s still so much paper left?

        Reply
  3. Arnoldas

    Another thing. David and bettors, what do you think about this proposal. Make a list of bettors, who agree to receive a part of their bets. For example, I agree to receive 80% of my bets, if this is done ASAP. Payment process starts with those who agree to receive smallest part of their bets (and no further payment to them). List could look like this:

    1) agree to receive just 50%
    2) agree to receive 55%
    ..
    100) agree to receive 75%

    Reply
  4. solrodar

    Regarding “gracious donations to shareholders”: it doesn’t look as if the receivership has been publicly notified on bitbet.us itself. Anonymous comments don’t count.

    Reply
  5. a

    Cash: 954.78385211 BTC (of which 755.33378422 BTC is currently under my control) <– Right there is your missing 200 btc.

    Reply
  6. Stanislav Datskovskiy
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA512
    
    At this time of blockheight 405145,
    I bid 9 BTC on davout's BBET auction.
    
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    Version: GnuPG v1.4.10 (GNU/Linux)
    
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    =mhlY
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    Reply
  7. znort987

    Hi Francois,

    Thanks for the update, but I tend to agree with one of the poster above:
    you list assets as cash: BTC 954 or so, yet only BTC 750 or so is under your
    control. Are the missing BTC 200 still under someone else’s control ?

    Reply
    1. Mallory S.

      It is disingenuous to claim 954 BTC as an asset when in fact one only has possession of 754 BTC. Further, it seems peculiar to skip over the lacking ~199 BTC so nonchalantly. Why are these funds separate from the main 750 BTC when they’re both clearly outstanding bets from the site?

      It would seem that the deficit for the time being is roughly 27 BTC + 199 BTC – revenue from auctions.

      Reply
  8. Neil

    What happened to the 200 BTC David? BitBet was supposedly run with everything in reserve until the 17BTC donation. I hope you’ve asked this question?

    Reply
  9. Pingback: BitBet (S.BBET) March 2016 Statement on Trilema - A blog by Mircea Popescu.

  10. Erik Smith

    Hello,

    I want to bid on BBET auction. What is the best way of doing it?

    Two other questions:
    1. Is the twitter account considered in the assets.
    2. Is there an ongoing agreement with a hosting provider? If so, when will be discontinued?

    I wrote to the email address of the site, but I had no replies. I’m this one:
    http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=31-03-2016#1442737

    Thanks,
    Erik

    Reply
  11. hanbot

    A few questions/observations:

    Why is it that bet id 14363 on bet 1152 shows a bet amount of 0.0701 in your report and on bitbet’s site, however blockchain.info reports only .07 was sent for this tx? Looks like a house bet, too.

    Can you elaborate on item Q5? What is a “proposal id”? What do you mean the “donations” were “recorded by BitBet after the January report”? There aren’t any donations in the January or February reports of this year.

    As to the state of assets and liabilities, why is ~331 BTC listed as “bettor winnings” under liabilities given the three unpaid but resolved bets in Q2 of the data total ~5 BTC? And why are bettor winnings + bettor refunds + the zeroconf item under liabilities (950.22341864) not equal to items 1, 2, and 3 (953.57385211) under assets?

    Reply
    1. kakobrekla

      Why is it that bet id 14363 on bet 1152 shows a bet amount of 0.0701 in your report and on bitbet’s site, however blockchain.info reports only .07 was sent for this tx? Looks like a house bet, too.

      You must look at the total sum per address per block to match what bitbet reports.
      Instead of looking at tx/de3a677188b9d952187532d19b7ea14ae2a168ed62a008203c9f33ff822f52d7, look at address/1MKQWVvZHx3jMr3i4vWFVhJBhwwUfshJwB – it should be obvious what happened there.

      Can you elaborate on item Q5? What is a “proposal id”? What do you mean the “donations” were “recorded by BitBet after the January report”? There aren’t any donations in the January or February reports of this year.

      Proposal ID in that table are actually bet ID for which the addresses were given out. These donations were made after the January statement. I always ran a script to account for donations for the period before I signed the statements and reported any findings to be included in the statement. Because the February statement was not to be signed, I did not run the script and therefore did not report the donations at that time. You can verify the claims in the following, trivial way:
      1. Check the address in question matches the list signed by MP to be used by BB
      2. Check the timestamp of the deposit made to respective address in blockchain
      3. Check that they were not actually accounted to any bet
      In short: the 3 payments in question are regarded as donations because, like others, it took them longer than 72 hrs to confirm and are therefore not assigned to any bet.

      Reply
    2. David FRANCOIS Post author

      As to the state of assets and liabilities, why is ~331 BTC listed as “bettor winnings” under liabilities given the three unpaid but resolved bets in Q2 of the data total ~5 BTC?

      I calculated the ~335 BTC listed as “Bettor winnings before fee” as the sum of bets made on outstanding proposals (including the unpaid resolved bets) for which the resolution timestamp is earlier than, or equal to 1460325600 (end of April 10th). The actual BitBet liability then comes by substracting the 1% BitBet’s resolution fee.

      I have attached another data extraction as an update to the report so you can check this.

      And why are bettor winnings + bettor refunds + the zeroconf item under liabilities (950.22341864) not equal to items 1, 2, and 3 (953.57385211) under assets?

      In your sum, you need to take the ~335 BTC (bettor winnings before BitBet fee), not the value after BitBet takes its cut which is BitBet’s actual liability to the happy winrars.

      Reply
  12. Znort987
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    At this time of blockheight 405895, I bid 9.5 BTC on davout's BitBet auction, namely:
    
        - The source code for the bitbet website
        - Ownership of the bitbet.us domain name
        - The user and bet database
        - The twitter account
    
    Although this is not a requirement, and assuming he has kept a copy, I would also appreciate
    if Matic could, as a matter of courtesy, provide the complete logs for the site.
    
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    Reply
  13. hanbot

    Checking this out, I see bet 1249 (alphago) marked with timestamp 14880346137, well after the 1460325600 cutoff stated, whereas its actual resolution time was pegged for March 16th, well before the April 10th cutoff. Was this bet included in the ~335 sum?

    Reply
  14. hanbot

    Also, as per kakobrekla’s comment, I checked the three items in Q5 and found that while their respective addresses do indeed appear in the signed address list, all three timestamp disparities between the attached data and blockchain are less than 72 hours (albeit the first two items being ~15 minutes short of it).

    Reply
    1. kakobrekla

      Address 13LEhpUgz7umZuBq6wV8ZTDwQto1mS2j4G was requested at 1455251616 epoch time, which translates to 2016-02-12T04:33:36+00:00 and the transaction in question was included in block 398504 at 2016-02-15 05:35:39 according to bc.info.

      Address 13LfxuAXg9Q9vVLcSKhXE3otFpDQHxs4f7 was requested at 1455251644 epoch time, which translates to 2016-02-12T04:34:04+00:00 and the transaction in question was included in block 398504 at 2016-02-15 05:35:39 according to bc.info.

      Address 146FNzLJyCxD64o7RVuPyxfJ37iMrGf9HF was requested at 1457469242 epoch time, which translates to 2016-03-08T20:34:02+00:00. The address was given out as deposit address for bet #1249, which was closing at 2016-03-09T00:00:00+00:00. The transaction in question was included in block 401776 at 2016-03-09 00:39:07 according to bc.info and has therefore missed the time window to be accepted as a legitimate bet.

      Reply
      1. David FRANCOIS Post author

        I failed to realize that the what I used (MySQL’s FROM_UNIXTIME()) to convert timestamps, would yield localized date-times, and not GMT.

        Since I’m in the GMT+1 time zone there is a 1 hour discrepancy.

        Reply
  15. David FRANCOIS Post author
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    I bid 13.37 BTC on the BitBet assets.
    Made at block 406041 (0000000000000000045b9d59d7e2d5defac9c9c80fca046e51a68492e3cbf9b2)
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    Reply
  16. znort987
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA512
    
    
    At this time of blockheight 406050, I bid 15.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction, namely:
    
        - The source code for the bitbet website
        - Ownership of the bitbet.us domain name
        - The user and bet database
        - The twitter account
    
    Although this is not a requirement, and assuming he has kept a copy, I would also appreciate
    if Matic could, as a matter of courtesy, provide the complete logs for the site.
    
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    Reply
  17. kakobrekla
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    Blockheight is 406130 and I bid 17.94766149 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
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    Reply
  18. Znor987
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    At this time of blockheight 406146, I bid 19.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  19. kakobrekla
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    Blockheight is 406151 and I bid 20 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
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    Reply
  20. Znor987
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    At this time of blockheight 406146, I bid 25.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  21. Znor987

    Now with correct date:

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    At this time of blockheight 406151, I bid 25.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  22. kakobrekla
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    Blockheight is 406152 and I bid 26 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
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    Reply
  23. Znor987
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    At this time of blockheight 406153, I bid 30.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  24. kakobrekla
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    Blockheight is still 406153 and I bid 33 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
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    Reply
  25. Znor987

    This is going to take a while …

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    At this time of blockheight 406153 (Thu Apr  7 12:17:44 GMT 2016),
    I bid 34.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  26. Pete Dushenski

    And a third horse appeared.

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA512
    
    At blockheight 406155, I, pete_dushenski, GPG FP E6625CC14638C4CA404694E9165749929F9A6BDD, do hereby bid 40 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
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    Reply
  27. Znor987

    If I could still use a half-decent site to do so, I’d wager this is going to drag into the wee morn

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    At this time of blockheight 406155 (Thu Apr 7 12:31:45 GMT 2016)
    I bid 41.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  28. David FRANCOIS Post author
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA1
    
    I bid 50 btc.
    
    And btw, including the last block height doesn't really serve
    any purpose.
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  29. Pete Dushenski
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    I, pete_dushenski, GPG FP E6625CC14638C4CA404694E9165749929F9A6BDD, do hereby bid 60 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
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    Reply
  30. Znor987
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA512
    
    
    Well, Davout, you never really specified the rules
    by which the time at which bids were going to be
    received was going to be accounted for.
    
    Anyways.
    
    I bid 61.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
    1. David FRANCOIS Post author

      The point is that it would only prove one did bid *after* some point of time, the better approach would be to deedbot bids if one really wanted to prove the bid came *before* some point of time.

      I don’t think it’s very important to prove that, if a bidder doesn’t follow up by shortly by paying up, the point is moot anyway.

      Reply
  31. David FRANCOIS Post author
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA1
    
    I bid 63.1337 BTC on the BitBet assets.
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    Reply
  32. Pete Dushenski
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
    Hash: SHA512
    
    I, pete_dushenski, GPG FP E6625CC14638C4CA404694E9165749929F9A6BDD, do hereby bid 70 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
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    Reply
  33. Znor987
    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    I bid 71.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  34. Pete Dushenski

    OMFG don’t outbid me with 39 seconds to spare this time. Lol.

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    I, pete_dushenski, GPG FP E6625CC14638C4CA404694E9165749929F9A6BDD, do hereby bid 72 BTC on davout's BitBet auction. 
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    Reply
  35. Znor987

    As discussed above, wasn’t the intent, but things came my way IRL

    -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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    I bid 73.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
    
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    Reply
  36. Pete Dushenski
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    I, pete_dushenski, GPG FP E6625CC14638C4CA404694E9165749929F9A6BDD, do hereby bid 74 BTC on davout's BitBet auction. 
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    Reply
  37. Znor987
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    I bid 75.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
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  38. Pete Dushenski
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    I, pete_dushenski, GPG FP E6625CC14638C4CA404694E9165749929F9A6BDD, do hereby bid 80 BTC on davout's BitBet auction. 
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  39. Znor987
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    I bid 81.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
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  40. Pete Dushenski
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    I, pete_dushenski, GPG FP E6625CC14638C4CA404694E9165749929F9A6BDD, do hereby bid 85 BTC on davout's BitBet auction. 
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    Reply
  41. Znor987
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    I bid 86.0 BTC on davout's BitBet auction.
    
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    Reply
        1. Pete Dushenski

          I suppose there’s that eh.

          For whatever it might be worth at this point, were we nearing the end of your rope or were we just scratching the surface ?

          Cheers.

          Reply
  42. Gord

    With these bets there will be an excess of funds once all bets are paid out and pending bets refunded. Where do the excess funds go? Receiver keeps?

    Reply
  43. Pingback: That time I let outright ownership of BitBet slip through my fingers. | Contravex: A blog by Pete Dushenski

  44. Pingback: BitBet receivership third progress report | fr.anco.is

  45. Pingback: Line Betting on BitBet, Closing Out | The Whet

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